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USF Study Questions Accuracy of the “Ferguson Effect”

An image of a man in handcuffs

Public criticism and distrust of police following the 2014 shooting death of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri has had a minimal impact on officer morale nationwide. This is in sharp contrast to the “Ferguson Effect,” a term used to blame a rising crime rate in major cities and officer withdrawal from proactive policing.

In a study published in Criminology & Public Policy, 51 researchers examined 18,413 surveys of law enforcement officers from 87 police departments before and after the Ferguson shooting. Morale was measured by survey items reflecting job satisfaction, burnout, and cynicism. De-policing was measured as a reduction in foot patrols, attendance at community meetings, and the number of citations issued.

“Post-Ferguson protests did not appreciably worsen police morale, nor did they lead to substantial withdrawal from most police work,” said lead author and USF graduate student Chris Marier. “This suggests that the institution of policing is resilient to external shocks and that criticism of police is not detrimental to policing or public safety.”

While some officers did report having less job satisfaction and feeling burned out, the differences before and after Ferguson were negligible as were the slight drop in citations and foot patrols. As far as cynicism, the authors found it was high before and after the shooting, signaling police departments need to address officers’ attitudes and stress levels in order to promote proactive policing and community engagement.

“Although we didn’t find strong evidence of de-policing following Ferguson, our results indicate that low morale is associated with reduced police activity by officers,” said co-author Lorie Fridell, PhD, professor of criminology. “Police administrators must address officers’ cynicism and distrust regardless of current public sentiment. The implications of our findings extend beyond the Ferguson Effect to a more general understanding of police culture.”

The study’s authors note a few limitations. Officers who were most affected by post-Ferguson protests may have been those least likely to respond to the survey, which may mean that the study’s results underestimate changes in morale and police activity over time. But officers who felt most aggrieved may have been more likely to respond, which may overestimate changes. And some officers may have provided responses they thought were socially desirable, avoiding responses that appeared unprofessional or unappealing.

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